Polymarket Strategy Discovery Bot

A research dashboard for wallet discovery, strategy classification, hypothesis generation, and held-out backtest triage.

Generated 2026-08-07T16:40:20+00:00
Backtest gate: ROI above 2% and win rate at least 50%.
Wallets1,570
Trades24,358
Positions7,700
Hypotheses100
Backtests100
Tested Positions1,159
Pass Verdicts0
Best Holdout ROI9.77%
Audit Rows100
Shortlist0
Top Trust Score25.00
Fragile/Watch10

Pipeline

PhaseLabelCountStatus
0Foundation35ready
1Wallet discovery4,001ready
2Wallet database1,570ready
3Raw trade collector24,358ready
4Position reconstruction7,700ready
5Wallet metrics72ready
6Smart wallet score72ready
7Strategy classification72ready
8Pattern mining107ready
9Clustering6ready
10Hypothesis generator100ready
11Independent backtesting100ready
14Backtest quality audit100ready

Backtest Verdicts

neutral37
fail2
insufficient_sample61

Backtest Quality Audit

Hyp IDTitleQualityTrustSampleTestedRoiWinRec
110Backtest spray_and_pray 0.90-1.00 entries held under_10mmonitor25.00strong1760.00%0.00%Monitor after the next deeper refresh.
101Backtest market_maker_like 0.90-1.00 entries held under_10mmonitor25.00strong640.00%0.00%Monitor after the next deeper refresh.
176Backtest cluster 3: high_conviction_position_taker_clustermonitor25.00moderate570.00%0.00%Monitor after the next deeper refresh.
155Backtest high_conviction_position_taker 0.00-0.10 entries held under_10mmonitor25.00moderate560.00%0.00%Monitor after the next deeper refresh.
133Backtest high_conviction_position_taker 0.90-1.00 entries held under_10mmonitor25.00moderate480.00%0.00%Monitor after the next deeper refresh.
120Backtest spray_and_pray 0.90-1.00 entries held 10_to_60mmonitor19.75moderate330.00%0.00%Monitor after the next deeper refresh.
121Backtest spray_and_pray 0.80-0.90 entries held under_10mmonitor13.75moderate250.00%0.00%Monitor after the next deeper refresh.
126Backtest spray_and_pray 0.70-0.80 entries held under_10mdo_not_trust_yet12.00thin160.00%0.00%Collect more matching positions before interpreting this result.
143Backtest high_conviction_position_taker 0.80-0.90 entries held under_10mdo_not_trust_yet11.25thin150.00%0.00%Collect more matching positions before interpreting this result.
122Backtest spray_and_pray 0.60-0.70 entries held under_10mdo_not_trust_yet9.75thin130.00%0.00%Collect more matching positions before interpreting this result.
180Backtest 80-plus score cohort behaviorpromising_but_fragile9.12moderate440.01%4.55%Validate against broader wallets and markets before promotion.
171Backtest 70-plus score cohort behaviorpromising_but_fragile9.09moderate450.01%4.44%Validate against broader wallets and markets before promotion.

Top Backtests

Hyp IDTitleResultTestedRoiWinTotal PnL
106Backtest high_conviction_position_taker 0.50-0.60 entries held under_10mneutral89.77%12.50%956.24
165Backtest cluster 1: long_term_directional_clusterneutral333.67%33.33%19,221.25
149Backtest long_term_directional 0.90-1.00 entries held 1_to_7dneutral101.79%80.00%2,771.98
114Backtest long_term_directional 0.80-0.90 entries held over_7dneutral51.66%60.00%614.88
180Backtest 80-plus score cohort behaviorneutral440.01%4.55%6.18
171Backtest 70-plus score cohort behaviorneutral450.01%4.44%6.18
110Backtest spray_and_pray 0.90-1.00 entries held under_10mneutral1760.00%0.00%0.00
101Backtest market_maker_like 0.90-1.00 entries held under_10mneutral640.00%0.00%0.00
176Backtest cluster 3: high_conviction_position_taker_clusterneutral570.00%0.00%0.00
155Backtest high_conviction_position_taker 0.00-0.10 entries held under_10mneutral560.00%0.00%0.00
133Backtest high_conviction_position_taker 0.90-1.00 entries held under_10mneutral480.00%0.00%0.00
120Backtest spray_and_pray 0.90-1.00 entries held 10_to_60mneutral330.00%0.00%0.00

Top Hypotheses

IdSourceTitlePriorityConfidenceSupportStatusBT Status
101patternBacktest market_maker_like 0.90-1.00 entries held under_10m67.62%94.55%3.16%backtest_neutralbacktested
102patternBacktest high_conviction_position_taker cohort behavior67.42%81.94%52.78%backtest_neutralbacktested
103patternBacktest arbitrage_like 0.50-0.60 entries held under_10m67.31%80.00%0.48%candidateinsufficient_sample
104patternBacktest arbitrage_like 0.60-0.70 entries held under_10m67.29%80.00%0.38%candidateinsufficient_sample
105patternBacktest market_maker_like 0.60-0.70 entries held under_10m66.86%94.20%0.35%backtest_neutralbacktested
106patternBacktest high_conviction_position_taker 0.50-0.60 entries held under_10m66.73%94.64%12.31%backtest_neutralbacktested
107patternBacktest arbitrage_like 0.40-0.50 entries held under_10m66.27%78.17%0.34%candidateinsufficient_sample
108patternBacktest long_term_directional 0.90-1.00 entries held over_7d66.07%85.78%0.25%candidateinsufficient_sample
109patternBacktest market_maker_like 0.70-0.80 entries held under_10m65.96%92.57%0.33%backtest_neutralbacktested
110patternBacktest spray_and_pray 0.90-1.00 entries held under_10m65.66%95.00%8.28%backtest_neutralbacktested
111patternBacktest market_maker_like 0.90-1.00 entries held 1_to_6h65.65%92.00%0.31%backtest_neutralbacktested
112patternBacktest market_maker_like 0.80-0.90 entries held under_10m65.54%91.61%0.84%backtest_neutralbacktested

Smart Wallets

NicknameScorePnLPositionsWin
0xe0f3208b94bBD4D1a3dEe319D4d574747297D8292.8596,748.7225886.49%
R79dgahr81.433,125.30384100.00%
mr.ozi80.7730,000.8915252.94%
SnowLover780.659,327.7817165.85%
0x3DFb153c197D4C19D3B31c1ecD2c7B6860eeabAf-172295790818579.24118,567.29106100.00%
nojnn78.635,370.228382.35%
RenanPresidente.78.267,824.838280.00%
Djdjdjekekek77.77298,075.225692.31%
0xE30E74595517de48f1FB19f4553dd3d9F1E96B87-177261298500076.1831,902.327363.64%
KiAr70.052,885.4694100.00%

Clusters

ClusterLabelWalletsAvg ScoreAvg Pos
1long_term_directional_cluster1360.3762.62
0high_conviction_position_taker_cluster1660.11245.56
3high_conviction_position_taker_cluster2636.5886.12
2long_hold_cluster1326.0232.62
4long_term_directional_cluster212.3033.50
5mixed_behavior_cluster20.00113.50

Recent Runs

IdRun TypeStarted AtStatusError
35backtest_quality_audit2026-08-07T16:20:58+00:00success-
34backtest_quality_audit2026-08-07T16:20:01+00:00success-
33hypothesis_backtest2026-08-07T16:06:37+00:00success-
32hypothesis_generation2026-08-07T16:06:37+00:00success-
31wallet_clustering2026-08-07T16:06:37+00:00success-
30pattern_mining2026-08-07T16:06:36+00:00success-
29wallet_strategy_classification2026-08-07T16:06:36+00:00success-
28smart_wallet_scores2026-08-07T16:06:36+00:00success-
27wallet_metrics2026-08-07T16:06:36+00:00success-
26position_reconstruction2026-08-07T16:06:36+00:00success-